“Oh?” The Man-Pig was somewhat puzzled. “I don’t understand what you mean.”
Old Lu was also confused. “Kid, what are you saying? Does this game have a ‘guaranteed winning method’?”
“I wouldn’t dare claim a guaranteed winning method.” Qi Xia shook his head. “But ‘Pig Games’ are absolutely not ‘luck-based games’—they’re thoroughly and completely about ‘probability theory.'”
“What do you mean?” Old Lu was somewhat at a loss. “No matter how you distribute them, there are still fifty black pieces and fifty white pieces. That means the probability of picking any piece is one-half.”
“Is that so?” Qi Xia shook his head noncommittally. “It’s precisely because of this point that this game appears to approach ‘luck-based.'”
“Let me tell you the truth, kid.” Old Lu leaned close to Qi Xia’s ear and said in a low voice, “The first time, I separated the black and white pieces. That way, as long as I could pick the bowl with black pieces, I’d win. Unfortunately, I lost. The second time, I distributed the black and white pieces evenly into the two bowls, but I still didn’t pick a black piece. My luck was really too terrible.”
Old Lu rubbed his chin and continued, “Thinking about it carefully, if I broke the ratio and each bowl had more or fewer black and white pieces, that would actually be even less favorable for picking a black piece. So no matter what, there can’t possibly be a guaranteed winning method.”
Qi Xia nodded. “It’s impossible to ‘guarantee victory’ in this game. I can only try to make my probability of winning as high as possible.”
“Hm? You have a way?”
Qi Xia didn’t answer. Instead, he said to the Man-Pig, “I’m ready. Let’s begin.”
The Man-Pig smiled foolishly, then extended his hand in a gesture of invitation. “Begin distributing.”
Qi Xia looked at the two identical bowls, then at the black and white pieces that had the same texture and feel. He silently grabbed a handful of pieces and placed them in a bowl.
Old Lu watched Qi Xia silently, not knowing how he was going to arrange these one hundred pieces.
He saw Qi Xia continuously grab pieces and throw them into the bowl, as if he wasn’t counting the number of black and white pieces at all.
“Hey… will this work?” Old Lu asked somewhat hesitantly. “Don’t you want to count how many you’ve already put in?”
Qi Xia didn’t speak. He just kept throwing pieces into one bowl.
Old Lu and Lin Qin looked at each other, neither knowing what Qi Xia was trying to do.
It wasn’t until Qi Xia had thrown all the pieces into the same bowl that he stopped.
Seeing this, the pig-headed person became somewhat angry. “Hey, hey, hey! That’s a foul! You must distribute them into two bowls!”
“I know.” Qi Xia nodded. “The distribution isn’t finished yet.”
After speaking, he picked up a single black piece from the bowl and threw it into the other bowl.
“My distribution is complete.” Qi Xia raised his head and looked at the Man-Pig calmly.
“What?!”
Everyone present was somewhat stunned.
What kind of distribution method was this?
One bowl had one black piece, while the other bowl had the remaining ninety-nine pieces?
Old Lu looked at the two bowls on the table. His pupils moved, and after a long time, he finally spoke. “Brilliant… brilliant…”
He understood Qi Xia’s tactics.
Originally, no matter how Old Lu distributed them, the “optimal distribution” for the pieces in the two bowls would be to make both one-half.
Only this way could he ensure he had a fifty percent chance of picking a black piece.
But Qi Xia had broken this equilibrium.
He made the probability of picking a black piece from one bowl one hundred percent, while making the probability of picking a black piece from the other bowl as close to one-half as possible.
Since he had to randomly choose one bowl from the start, Qi Xia might very well directly select the bowl containing the black piece. He wouldn’t need to pick a piece from the bowl—he’d win directly.
Even if his luck was bad and he chose the other bowl, the probability of selecting a black piece would still be close to one-half—after all, it was forty-nine percent.
He had essentially added a hidden layer of “insurance” to his chances of winning.
Seeing this scene, the eyes beneath the Man-Pig’s mask clearly became somewhat colder.
“Are you trying to play clever tricks with me?” The Man-Pig’s tone changed. It no longer sounded so childish, but carried a trace of cunning instead.
“Clever tricks?” Qi Xia found it somewhat laughable. He raised his eyebrows and said, “Everything I’ve done hasn’t violated the rules. How could it be clever tricks?”
The Man-Pig pulled out a blindfold from his pocket and slowly handed it to Qi Xia, saying, “I know quite a few clever people. Most of them have very bad luck.”
Qi Xia nodded and took the blindfold. “I can’t refute that. After all, clever people rarely rely on luck when doing things.”
“But what we’re doing is fundamentally gambling,” the Man-Pig said in a low voice. “The most important thing in gambling is ‘strong luck.’ You’re very clever, but what about your luck?”
“I don’t know,” Qi Xia answered. “But we’re about to find out.”
Qi Xia slowly put on the blindfold and placed his hands on the table without moving.
The Man-Pig took the two bowls and began shaking the pieces inside.
This rule was originally designed to counter certain opportunistic cheaters who would put white pieces at the bottom and spread all the black pieces on the top layer for easy picking.
But for Qi Xia’s tactics now, this rule had completely lost its effect.
The Man-Pig knew that no matter how he shook the pieces, the man before him would unhesitatingly select one.
After all, he had already done everything he needed to do. Next, he was prepared to leave everything to his “luck.”
Thinking this, he shook them casually, then scrambled the positions of the two bowls and rearranged them, one on the left and one on the right.
“Hey, which bowl will you choose?” the Man-Pig asked. “The one on your left… or your right?”
“I…” Qi Xia lowered his head in silence for a moment, then spoke. “Left. I choose left.”
Lin Qin and Old Lu both froze at the same time, suddenly feeling things were bad.
Because on Qi Xia’s left was precisely the bowl containing ninety-nine pieces!
The Man-Pig’s eyes suddenly lit up with a trace of light. “Very good. Next, please select a piece from it.”
He pushed the bowl in front of Qi Xia with a hint of mockery, as if watching him make a fool of himself.
The corners of Qi Xia’s mouth curved up slightly. “Didn’t you want to test my luck? Using this bowl to test is just right.”
“What…” The Man-Pig was startled. “You—you know this bowl is the ‘wrong’ one?!”
“More or less.” Qi Xia slowly extended his hand into the bowl, saying, “Actually, choosing ‘left or right’ is the same as choosing ‘rock-paper-scissors.’ It seems like balanced probability, but due to human thinking, there’s always deviation.”
“What do you mean?” Old Lu asked from the side, puzzled.
“Just like how most people throw scissors first in rock-paper-scissors, the probability isn’t actually balanced,” Qi Xia explained. “Paper makes your palm wide open, losing the sense of security, while rock clenches your fist, making the subconscious feel oppressed, so scissors becomes the most moderate choice. Choosing left or right is the same. In people’s subconscious, they think ‘left is safer.’ After all, most people in this world are right-handed. They frequently use their right hand, and the probability of their right hand getting injured is far higher than their left hand. So when choosing a safe direction, it’s easy to choose ‘left.'”
“You… are truly not an ordinary person,” the Man-Pig said.
“No need to praise me, because you understand these principles too,” Qi Xia said. “You placed the ninety-nine pieces on my left side. It wasn’t unintentional, was it?”
