It seemed as if good days were already appearing before him, but Liu Jun somewhat dared not believe it. Because he saw the famous Lehman Brothers company on the other side of the Pacific collapse thunderously after Bear Stearns. All reports said that banks would further suppress lending impulses. On one hand, there were suddenly signals of credit relaxation for small and medium enterprises domestically, while on the other hand, there were signals of credit tightening abroad. Financial markets were so distant from Liu Jun’s industry that he dared not rashly make decisions. Lessons from the past were still before his eyes – there had been people who could so easily obtain loans from various channels, which the state had also allowed, but suddenly, one day, the banks’ windows closed to them. Liu Jun could ignore all other people, but he could not ignore everything that had just happened to Qian Hongming. With lingering pain unhealed, how could one not feel apprehensive about loans that ran hot and cold?
Liu Jun was even more worried about the foreign markets he had just developed. Even if he could turn a blind eye to the successive collapses of small American banks, he could not ignore the fall of giants like Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns. If foreign banks became even more reluctant to lend because of this, the impact on the customers he had contacted was self-evident. There were still several F1 machines in his warehouse that had been paid for with deposits but might never have anyone come to collect them. If even companies like Lehman Brothers could collapse, what were his customers’ chances of survival? Should he make more contract adjustments before signing?
In the morning, Liu Jun took Xiao Suihua to school. Elementary school started early, and to accommodate Cui Bingbing and Dandan’s sleep, since elementary school began, Liu Jun had volunteered to take on the series of responsibilities of waking Xiao Suihua, helping her dress, eating, and taking her to school. Therefore, his work hours were always particularly early. However, he had a fellow traveler – Liang Sishen, who took her son to school every morning. Both families’ children attended the same elementary school, and their cars often appeared at the school gate one after the other. Today was quite coincidental – they arrived together and left together, with Liu Jun driving in front. But just after leaving the city, Liang Sishen’s beautiful Porsche immediately “whooshed” up from behind, overtaking Liu Jun, yet not using its speed to disappear into the distance, instead staying pressed in front of Liu Jun’s car. Liu Jun, driving his old Audi, could only helplessly follow behind, his heart full of longing for his Porsche lying in the pawn shop warehouse.
Arriving at the R&D center one after the other, Liang Sishen jumped out of her car and said, “I just heard you pawned your most valuable car. What happened?” During summer vacation, she had taken her two sons to tour South America, rushing back just in time, with her eldest son still missing several days of class. Now she was a housewife at home, dressing much more casually and relaxed, even willing to wear glasses when meeting people during the day.
“Not just pawned the car, also pawned the house – funds are very tight. But I heard about loosening monetary policy, with loans favoring small and medium enterprises. As soon as I got the news, I contacted the bank, but I still have to wait. I wanted to consult with Sister Liang – can I get a loan now, and how much? How does America’s current development from the subprime crisis to the financial crisis affect me?”
“People who generally ask such broad and vague questions are those who haven’t done their homework, but you obviously shouldn’t be one of them. Or… have you run out of ideas?”
“The many things that have happened these past few months have made me realize my poverty of economic knowledge – no, even my social cognition is poor. I must consult experts. Sister Liang, when will you give us lessons? A’San has also been saying he wants to ask you questions.”
“Don’t sweet-talk me. I’ve long retired from the world to focus on scientific research.” Liang Sishen smiled, but still became serious for a moment. “I’ve been catching up on the news I missed while traveling these past few days. After I finish reading, I’ll only have gotten to the end of August.”
“Hurry up! I can’t wait anymore. Foreign merchants have finally gotten visas and want to come inspect and sign contracts. I’ve already started discussing loans with the bank. All matters must be decided quickly – it’s urgent.”
Liang Sishen slapped her forehead and laughed, “Look how forgetful I’ve become. I brought you some books about America’s Great Depression and Japan’s situation during those years. Read them when you have time – it’s good to learn from them.” She dove into her car to find the books and handed them to Liu Jun. “Tell me honestly, why are your funds tight? Just paying wages shouldn’t be difficult for you. You’re someone with accumulation, not someone who’s reckless.”
“Downstream customers – the key is being dragged down by downstream customers. Many are delaying delivery dates, which breaks my capital turnover rhythm. Much capital is trapped in these delayed cycles. Some have eaten my advance payments and don’t want the goods anymore. I have quite a bit of such inventory in my warehouse now, which is very hard to resell in this market, seriously eroding my capital. There’s no choice – the overall environment is like this. Someone worse off than I is one of our customers, a shipyard. Now they’re selling ships that customers won’t collect at half price, and still no one wants them. In this situation, business is bad, especially when follow-up business can’t be connected. After finishing old orders, new orders don’t come, and my capital chain becomes precarious. Wages are the last straw. So I urgently need loans, otherwise next month’s wages might be delayed. The problems I face are whether to borrow, how much to borrow, whether to expand worker rotation, temporarily suspend the company, or be forced to lay off workers, and whether to accept contracts that aren’t guaranteed. Everything depends on how the situation develops.”
Liang Sishen listened with a smile to Liu Jun’s excited, lengthy discourse, patiently hearing him out before saying, “Someone says he’s experienced three economic downturns and summarized it in two words: survival. This time is the same – borrow when you should borrow. Economics always has ups and downs. When you emerge from the trough, those who survived well can start running fastest. Even if you carry some debt in the trough, it’s easy to pay off when you’re leading. I’m a theorist with no business management experience. My opinion is that crisis periods are also when enterprises passively or actively clear inventory. Once inventory is cleared, normal demand will emerge, and the market will produce normal demand again. So the economy will always rebound after hitting bottom. Find every way to survive – don’t be scared to death at midnight.”
Liu Jun hesitated for a moment and said, “As a private enterprise, my situation is different from Mr. Song’s. I have concerns. I try to use my friend Qian Hongming’s way of thinking to consider problems, but the road ahead doesn’t look good. First, enterprises generally have poor operating conditions now, including the previously booming real estate industry, which has also fallen into difficulties this year. Tax revenue will be affected. I heard the tax bureau has annual targets. I’m very worried about year-end surprise inspections for revenue generation, or other pretexts, like advance payments. If I barely maintain survival, can I withstand such a blow?”
“Hehe, this is intellectuals’ worst trait – thinking of all the bad possibilities beforehand, scaring themselves into inaction.”
Liu Jun laughed when he heard this, “Yes, haha. Looking back, since the goal is survival, what’s there to fear? Even if it means cutting through thorns, we must forge ahead. By the way, non-intellectual Yang Xun is also in trouble recently – asking Dongdong for 200 million right off the bat.”
Liang Sishen smiled slightly, “Stop gloating. This person can get help from within the system. Dongdong won’t lend him money, right?”
“You’re a fortune teller – always accurate.” Liu Jun changed the subject, “Sister Liang, your group’s recent research – sorry, can only remain theoretical for now. I temporarily can’t come up with money for experiments within a month, and after a month, I’ll still have to see how things go.”
Liang Sishen smiled and shrugged. Suddenly she asked, “Really, no spare money at all? You seem quite relaxed.”
“If I looked worried, the company’s morale would collapse. OK, I’ll go pressure the bank for loans now – borrow as much as possible. A bank loan officer told me recently that this year’s bonuses are so meager they’re almost drinking the northwest wind. As long as banks open up lending, they’ll be highly motivated.”
The two said goodbye. But after walking a few steps, Liu Jun turned back to catch up with Liang Sishen, “According to my friend’s way of thinking, since half of local government revenue comes from land sales, with current local fiscal difficulties, might they target real estate? For example, loosening credit for real estate, withdrawing some early-year policies?”
“Why do you care about all that?”
“I need to estimate market development, see if there might be opportunities for construction machinery. Construction machinery customers’ performance this year is almost nil, dragging down my E-series with no prospects.”
“I think I need to find some internal data to research… I’ll tell you later. No good – I’ve been away from society too long and become slow.”
Liang Sishen left muttering to herself. Liu Jun resonated with Song Yunhui’s two-character mantra of “survival” and decided that no matter what, he must dig money out of the bank and catch the first train of credit relaxation. As long as he didn’t use methods similar to drug addiction, like borrowing high-interest loans, he decided to use all possible means, seeking only survival. Seeing the crisis burning more fiercely in America, with even companies like Lehman Brothers able to collapse, the crisis obviously couldn’t bottom out quickly. The crisis might involve a broader scope and greater impact. Survival would be very, very difficult – more difficult than he had imagined. He could no longer conservatively use conventional measures. Like entering a jungle, for survival, one could frown, close one’s eyes, and eat earthworms. Even if it meant taking loans to pay wages, loans to pay daily operating expenses, loans to redeem his mortgaged property and car – so what? There were no rules anymore.
But the bank was still somewhat cautious, giving Liu Jun bank acceptances. Acceptances were no different from loans for Liu Jun. Previously, he used checks to buy raw materials; now he uses acceptances. When negotiating prices with suppliers eager to sell to him, offering only acceptances and no cash inevitably pressed down prices to another level. Getting the money, he quickly redeemed his car. Recently, people often asked where his car had gone, whether it was mortgaged, and whether he was financially tight. He finally understood Qian Hongming’s mentality last year when his capital chain was tense, yet he bought a Bentley – the less money you have, the less confidence you feel inside.
With money, he completely let loose in price wars. Previously, he had Tengfei as a first-tier brand and Tengda as a second-tier brand, abandoning low-tech mass products. But now, for survival, as long as prices were bearable, he did everything. In sales meetings, he said with killing intent that grabbing business meant eliminating competitors in this fragile survival environment, meant gaining greater market share, meant survival. He worked with finance and production departments to provide new price bottom lines every three days, letting the sales department freely engage in price combat with competitors using these precise price floors.
Luo Qing’s marketing department staff all received regular technical training to ensure they could speak to the point when promoting products, letting customers understand exactly where Tengfei’s products had good cost-performance ratios, ensuring they could face customers’ engineers. Therefore, regarding Liu Jun’s decision, everyone immediately voiced complaints – this price combat had too little technical content. But with great disaster looming, what else could the company do? Liu Jun also spoke frankly at the meeting. He was also conflicted inside. He had always insisted on winning through technology and had always managed the company with this philosophy, not hesitating to sacrifice scale for it. But facing a worldwide crisis, extraordinary methods must be adopted for survival. However, the philosophy of winning through technology remained the company’s soul – as long as the company survived, everything would return to normal.
Having convinced the marketing staff, Liu Jun himself felt very uncomfortable. For survival – was this excuse so righteous?
When Shen Huadong had some free time, he invited Liu Jun’s family out to dine with Chen Qifan, using the positive image of a friend’s family to show Chen Qifan that he, too, was a good person. Because Chen Qifan said he had a spotless record and was too lazy to marry him, Shen Huadong was quite anxious. During the meal, Shen Huadong told Liu Jun about a development – as one of the city’s largest real estate developers, he had just been invited to attend a symposium hosted by the city’s party and government leaders. The meeting was very serious. Besides the leaders, attendees included relevant department officials, heads of the four major banks, and various experts. The meeting discussed how to rescue the market. It was obvious that the government was more anxious about the real estate market than the developers themselves – indirectly anxious about the fiscal rice bag, of course. Moreover, leaders directly said at the meeting that the central government had ideas about rescuing the property market – the stock market had collapsed, and the property market couldn’t collapse again.
Liu Jun was astounded. The government’s steps, one by one, were completely as Qian Hongming had predicted and completely consistent with the decision possibilities he had calculated using Qian Hongming’s way of thinking. He couldn’t help but look at Xiao Suihua eating quietly, just a few months short, just those brief three months. If he had survived, Qian Hongming’s dawn would have been ahead. But although Qian Hongming saw the glimmer on the horizon, he ultimately couldn’t persist to this day. Time – it was only because of time.