Liu Jun was astounded. The government’s steps, one by one, were completely as Qian Hongming had predicted and completely consistent with the decision possibilities he had calculated using Qian Hongming’s way of thinking. He couldn’t help but look at Xiao Suihua eating quietly, just a few months short, just those brief three months. If he had survived, Qian Hongming’s dawn would have been ahead. But although Qian Hongming had seen the glimmer on the horizon one step ahead of others, he ultimately couldn’t persist to this day. Time – it was only because of time.
“We have a real estate project that’s been under construction, but we haven’t dared to open sales. After this meeting, it’s like we’ve been given half a reassurance pill. Now we just need to wait and see what follow-up measures there will be. But with the property market so sluggish now, land kings being returned everywhere, sales offices frequently being smashed, plus the poor overall economic environment, reviving the property market will be difficult. We don’t dare start another piece of land – still watching and waiting.”
“Credit has loosened a bit recently. Based on my contact with banks…”
“Don’t be a hypocrite – just say directly it’s contact with A’San. You and the bank – who’s with whom?”
Everyone laughed. Cui Bingbing instructed Chen Qifan to hit Shen Huadong. Liu Jun laughed and said, “I’m talking about the general situation. Although loans support small and medium enterprises, I don’t see operational details. It’s just a slogan. A’San says it’s very difficult to implement. Small and medium enterprises originally had poor credit ratings and low credit limits. When they encounter the current situation where they’re not dead but only half-alive, how dare banks lend? Like me, I got loans entirely through A’San. So think about it – banks now have money to lend, loan officers have lending impulses, but enterprises that can be granted credit are fewer than before. So where should the money flow?”
“As long as second-home policies and transfer tax policies stop, I won’t hesitate to lend to real estate companies,” Cui Bingbing interjected. “Rescuing factories is difficult, but rescuing the property market is too easy. Each locality just needs to find various excuses for large-scale demolition, and demand immediately rises. Don’t look at how much unsold housing is currently accumulated – relative to the city’s population, this number isn’t much. This city has many wealthy people who currently have nowhere to invest, all putting money in our bank as fixed deposits, three-month, notice deposits, one one-year deposits – all short-term. Everyone’s keeping their thieving hearts alive, waiting for signs. As long as your real estate shows even slight improvement and you entice them, those deposits will rush out. There are only so many investment channels. How the future goes depends entirely on how the government operates the property market.”
“A’San’s tone is similar to my father’s. After hearing my briefing, he said the government will count on land sales to fill local finances. But in the current situation, no one is willing to bid for land. There have already been two failed auctions in the past two months. They can’t not be anxious. As long as the central government gives the green light, local action will be significant. He says he’s no longer worried.”
Liu Jun teased, “It’s that A’San and your father have similar insights to mine. We predicted this possibility several days early – we just couldn’t guess when the turning point would appear. Dongdong, you should humbly learn from us in the future. Don’t disbelieve me – the evidence is all in my blog. You commented, saying I was fantasizing and ignoring our country’s reality. Hehe.”
“Hmph, you two are in cahoots, always good at undermining me.” Shen Huadong glanced sideways at Chen Qifan and resentfully changed the subject. “Looks like I’ll be using real estate to support two manufacturing companies. These days, running factories is the most, most, most boring and least profitable thing.”
The speaker was unintentional, but the listener was attentive. Those three “most, most, most” awakened the dreamer. Even though he could currently use his wife A’San’s connections to get loans first, allowing two factories and one R&D center to survive on borrowed money, could he count on policies to help? Whether domestic or export sales, even though he had issued orders to the marketing department not to hesitate in price warfare, facing a suddenly shrinking market and customers who, like him, were watching and waiting and didn’t dare launch new products without orders, even if he grabbed a larger market share, the downward trend in absolute sales values was irreversible. Everything he was doing was just struggling on with loans obtained through backdoor connections – futile death throes.
Originally, he had hoped that after this year’s economic ups and downs, decision-makers could see clearly where the imbalances in economic development structure lay and could make major repairs during the economic slowdown period to reverse the trend of distorted development. But the meeting spirit that Dongdong conveyed made Liu Jun completely unable to see any policy dawn above manufacturing enterprises. He dared not hope anymore. Manufacturing was the most, most, most boring in Dongdong’s eyes – how could it be interesting in decision-makers’ eyes? He believed that even if more policies to support small and medium enterprises came in the future, they would be all thunder and no rain, while more hidden forces would be used in places most directly related to fiscal interests – the fastest profit-making places, the easiest profit-making places.
But why was there still a little unwillingness to give up in his heart? He always held some hope that one day, products exhibited abroad would attract people not because they were cheap and good quality, but entirely because of cutting-edge high technology catching people’s eyes. How much he hoped that one day, he could proudly beat his chest and say: completely independent R&D – we Chinese don’t just produce shirts and toys, our country strongly supports enterprises’ transition to high technology.
But it was really difficult. He alone couldn’t make a boat. This year’s high-tech product tax rebates hadn’t even been received yet. Even this meager support was hard to realize.
During the National Day holiday, a family of four marched grandly to Jia Li’s hometown. Xiao Suihua missed her mother, and Xiao Suihua’s grandparents also very much missed Xiao Suihua. The two children were strapped into special car seats, chattering away in the back all the way, laughing and playing. Eventually, they got tired and finally agreed to sleep quietly. Cui Bingbing turned around to cover them with small blankets, checking that both were fast asleep before saying softly to Liu Jun, “You see how Dandan always laughs so loudly, laughing while screaming. I see many children make such noise when they’re happy. Finally, Xiao Suihua has had laughter in our home these past few days, and the laughter is getting louder. I just hope there won’t be regression after these few days.”
“There’s no choice – it can only be this way.” Liu Jun realized that Xiao Suihua would see scenes that made her unhappy, but sometimes people could only accept fate – this was Xiao Suihua’s fate.
Therefore, when he unexpectedly saw Xiao Suihua’s grandfather waving greetings at the highway exit, Liu Jun’s heart thumped, hoping that Xiao Suihua’s grandfather could take care of Xiao Suihua’s tender heart. He couldn’t help but jump out first, preparing to communicate his views with Xiao Suihua’s grandfather beforehand. But seeing Xiao Suihua’s grandfather’s face, aged and haggard, much more in less than three months, he really couldn’t bear to make demands. But what needed to be said still had to be said – children were more fragile.
Xiao Suihua’s grandfather would tear up and sob whenever he mentioned his daughter. He also felt that little Xiao Suihua shouldn’t suffer more blows, but they also hoped Xiao Suihua’s voice could awaken Jia Li. He was very conflicted – both palms and backs of hands were flesh. He could only make things difficult for Xiao Suihua, who was the least traumatized and didn’t understand much yet. Finally, Xiao Suihua’s grandfather held Liu Jun’s hand and kept expressing gratitude, saying that he and his wife’s greatest comfort each day was watching the VCDs Liu Jun sent, recording Xiao Suihua’s life. They were very grateful for everything the Liu Jun couple had done for Xiao Suihua. Hearing this, Liu Jun finally breathed a sigh of relief. What he feared most was Xiao Suihua’s grandparents being dissatisfied. Now it seemed they were such accommodating and gentle people.
From the moment Xiao Suihua woke up and saw her tearful grandfather, almost the entire day, Liu Jun’s ears were filled with wave after wave of crying, including Dandan grabbing Xiao Suihua’s clothes and crying along. Only Jia Li’s gaze remained fixed on the infinite distance, her face showing neither happiness nor unhappiness. Even Cui Bingbing felt sad watching. That evening, checking into a hotel, Liu Jun sent his family to the car, then got out to tell Xiao Suihua’s earnestly seeing-off grandparents, “Speaking realistically, Jia Li is fine in all other aspects – her complexion is much better than before. Actually… when Hongming was here, she was very worried. Now being so carefree is also good… Don’t be too sad, you two. Jia Li has heavy thoughts and is introverted. Perhaps losing memory isn’t necessarily a bad thing – it might be the best way to avoid pain.”
Xiao Suihua’s grandparents each held one of Liu Jun’s hands, speechless with emotion. After a while, grandfather took out a large envelope and stuffed it into Liu Jun’s hands, choking up, “You go back directly tomorrow, don’t come anymore. Thank you for raising Xiao Suihua so well – we’re very reassured.”
But Liu Jun could tell what was in the envelope with one hand – it was money. He often gave people such envelopes and was skilled at it – he could tell by touch. “Hongming and I are childhood friends who wore open-crotch pants together. I don’t discuss money with him. Xiao Suihua is also my niece.”
Xiao Suihua’s grandparents naturally wouldn’t accept it. Liu Jun threw it back to them through the car window before leaving and sprinted away. But he didn’t leave the next day. He let Cui Bingbing take Dandan to play while he took Xiao Suihua to visit her grandparents again. The three of them had a good meeting in his car while he sunned himself alone in the residential area. On the way back to the hotel, he told Xiao Suihua that everyone loved her very, very much. Xiao Suihua nodded with seeming understanding, but was very puzzled about why mommy didn’t hug her or look at her – did mommy not want her anymore? Whenever she talked about this, Xiao Suihua would cry very sadly. Liu Jun could only tell Xiao Suihua that mommy was sick and couldn’t see or hear anything, and didn’t know Xiao Suihua had come to see her. When mommy recovered, mommy would give Xiao Suihua fierce kisses.
After this visit home, Xiao Suihua became silent again. However, the group took a detour to Shanghai for a good trip, and the family recovered their pre-holiday smiles. But Liu Jun estimated that Yang Xun couldn’t smile during the entire holiday. During these holiday days, international commodity prices plummeted, falling by more than a quarter. The nickel produced by Yang Xun’s nickel mine was naturally among them. Liu Jun thought that Yang Xun was clever and good at seizing money-making opportunities, so he probably did hedging at the Shanghai Futures Exchange – he remembered hearing Yang Li mention it. He just didn’t know how Yang Xun’s foresight was, how much a gambling nature he had, whether he held short or long positions. Currently, domestic commodity prices move quickly with international ones. After the holiday, they would follow the downward trend. If Yang Xun held short positions due to continuous nickel price drops in the third quarter, purely for hedging his products, the losses wouldn’t be too severe.
Sure enough, on October 8th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange was full of limit downs – wails everywhere.
At the same time, local policies strongly supporting the property market were continuously announced everywhere. Liu Jun sighed deeply – he seemed to see the market’s future. He didn’t know what the highest-level decisions were like. Probably many people like him were eagerly waiting for voices from above, just with different purposes.
Soon, Liang Sishen told Liu Jun news that Yang Xun had suffered major losses in the futures market, losing so much that even his phone was cut off. Liu Jun asked strangely, “Didn’t he purely do hedging? He also speculated?”
Instead, Liang Sishen asked strangely, “You understand futures? Since you understand, you should comprehend the psychology of people in that business. Once you enter that door, if not speculation, then what?”
“Yes, the leverage in that business is so high. After several big ins and outs, adrenaline shoots straight up. Especially newcomers – Yang Xun has been in it at most just over a year. I almost lost my company playing with it. Fortunately, machinery is my passion, and I barely pulled my feet out of the mud.”
“Yang Xun has always been a big gambler with great courage. Please help me warn security – if Yang Xun comes looking for me these days, say I’m not here.”
“Yang Xun… would come here? He’d be better off blocking your door at home.”
“When Yang Xun needs something from you, he’ll display targeted great charm. This charm is highly effective on me, while someone else is immune – he doesn’t dare go to my home anymore. Now with such crashes, what will you do? Continue supporting this money-burning research center, or seek cooperation with state enterprises?”
“I’ve been constantly considering and observing lately. I’m trying to find another way to make money to support my manufacturing and R&D, just like what Dongdong’s family is currently doing – using investment and real estate to support two big factories. I also very much hope to find a wealthy patron for the research center, but very few people are willing to spend big money supporting independent innovation and the independent R&D spirit. Many investors can’t understand the spiritual realm of these scientists in the center who are devout about research, and can’t cooperate with such investors.”
“But your current owned funds simply can’t engage in investment and real estate, these two major projects, unless you piggyback. Currently, in our country, there are very few fields available for outsiders like you to invest in. You don’t dare enter stock or futures markets now, right? What else can you do? Please forgive my directness – we’re talking business.”
“I’m… targeting real estate. Information from these past few days increasingly makes me believe that local governments can raise housing prices within their regions. But exactly how they plan to do it remains to be observed. Currently, only a few cities have launched policies experimentally. I calculated – if I have 30 million in liquid funds to invest in buying second-hand houses, I only need to pay a 30% down payment. Suppose I can buy 10,000 square meters. As long as housing prices rise by 1,000 yuan per square meter, I can get 10 million in returns. This is already considerable leverage and returns, suitable for retail investors like me with insufficient capital strength. And I believe this appreciation range should have a good probability. Commercial loans are also possible. How exactly to operate – now that I’ve settled the children, I discuss with A’San every day. Forgive me for saying something laughable – as long as I can still survive, the research center will not collapse. Supporting it is also supporting one of my beliefs, a hope. It’s just very unfortunate that for its sake, I have to move further and further away from the research work I love. Life conforms to Murphy’s Law.”
Liang Sishen was stunned for a moment, then laughed, “Seeing a complete profiteer talk about beliefs makes me realize this world is really beautiful. I’m really happy to see people working hard to realize their hopes. I increasingly like working at the center – there’s a magnetic field here. I’m also watching the situation, feeling the cards haven’t been laid out yet. But based on my intuition from many years in the capital business, now is a good era for capital expansion. Let’s exchange ideas frequently in the future.”
Liu Jun couldn’t help thinking that among those working hard to realize their hopes, Song Yunhui was included. He was very happy to have another person appreciate such character rather than mock it. Honestly, if it weren’t because Liang Sishen was Song Yunhui’s wife, and he deeply felt that Song Yunhui was also someone who harbored hopes for independent R&D, he wouldn’t dare tell Liang Sishen about his beliefs. These days, a grown man making such verbal declarations would be considered a weird middle-aged uncle.
Shen Huadong constantly told Liu Jun that his father had met with so-and-so again, discussed this and that – the trend was becoming clearer and clearer, etc. Liu Jun couldn’t help thinking of the four words “collusion between officials and merchants.” Two completely different systems, yet they had the same interest goals and came together for a common revolutionary goal. Pitiful.
That veteran who had personally come to inspect enemy conditions before daring to place orders after latecomers fled, who had cooperated with Liu Jun for many years and could be considered an old-timer who had been immersed in manufacturing for years, who even when facing rapidly expanding bubbles in previous years was unwilling to transfer affection to real estate because he loved this industry and whose favorite entertainment was squatting in workshops practicing file skills, now called Liu Jun saying he was preparing to withdraw funds for real estate. He kindly reminded Liu Jun to prepare psychologically and not include possible demand from his side in plans for the coming months. He advised Liu Jun to also prepare with both hands – this winter would be very, very long. Going forward might repeat previous years’ economic structural imbalances. Manufacturing would be extremely difficult, and those insisting on manufacturing appeared very conservative and stupid.
Liu Jun felt somewhat sad for his kind – he wasn’t the only one with thoughts of moving outward. Probably many people like him had endured again and again until they could endure no more.
And facts were also forcing him to have no choice but to follow the veteran’s lead and transfer affection. Old orders were gradually completed, but new orders seemed like a rare species. Tengfei, Tengda, and most enterprises in the entire industrial zone entered a bleak winter like the industrial zone. The situation became increasingly pessimistic. Even though he reduced prices again and again for high-tech exclusive skills, he couldn’t get suitable business. It wasn’t that they weren’t working hard, but the market had suddenly disappeared. This market included those that closed and went bankrupt, those sitting on the fence and watching, and those who lost confidence and withdrew capital to transfer affection. Very few were heard to be expanding with hot blood anymore. Now, even fewer people dare invest in manufacturing than two years ago.
But he saw new policies on land circulation that further supported the theory of little land and many people. He saw State Council meetings requiring reduced housing transaction taxes to benefit citizens’ home purchases. There were adjustments to tax rebate policies, but they favored labor-intensive industries. Policies were step by step going backwards. Yet, rarely seeing support for small and medium enterprises, only fattening some with connections like him.
But he couldn’t let the enterprise collapse. He thought of Qian Hongming making his final struggle at the beginning of the year rather than absconding abroad with money. Wasn’t he struggling similarly now? When struggling, people do develop evil courage.
Even the smallest weeds in the company grounds were pulled out. The ivy climbing the company walls was trimmed neatly and tidily. The originally spotless workshops became even more spotless. Even with worker rotation, even mobilizing workers to clean up, it still couldn’t solve the big problem of low operating rates. The rotation policy was extended indefinitely. All Liu Jun could tell workers was, “At least we’re still alive.” For the rest, he had no confidence and couldn’t make any promises with time limits. He saw the company’s morale increasingly declining.
Finally, the fashionable term “turning point” also came to this unfashionable company. The first worker voluntarily resigned. At this time, when he laid off workers, he had to consider whether people could find jobs outside. But this person voluntarily resigned. Liu Jun saw that beneath the calm, cold company surface was people’s shaken trust in the company.
Just entering November, the company’s operating rate dropped to 30%. The R&D center also cut salaries.
Even the financially powerful Shen family didn’t hesitate to lay off large numbers when operating rates dropped to 30%. What should he, Liu Jun, do? Cui Bingbing suggested for the first time that they couldn’t be soft-hearted anymore. Decisive action was needed, or the entire company would be dragged down.
Liu Jun’s psychological pressure reached its peak. The entire company was watching him. Returning home, he had to deal with two little girls with pleasant faces. He knew Cui Bingbing was also under great pressure. Banks simultaneously received window guidance from the People’s Bank and Banking Regulatory Commission to compress loans while completing tasks assigned by head offices, extremely contradictory, yet had to be executed. Both adults at home were balloons inflated to transparency, considerately avoiding friction with each other to prevent bursting, also considerately not adding extra weight to each other. Men and women were both human, both with limits of endurance. Only when awakened by alarm clocks in the morning would they quietly embrace for a while, giving each other encouragement.
But Liu Jun always wanted to find places to vent. He thought of Yang Xun’s suggestion to find deserted places to roar. He didn’t adopt it. Previously, he would find coaches to spar with and would go up mountains to roar. Now he used local materials. The company had declined from the original three shifts to only one day shift. At five o’clock, when work ended, the factory area became empty with no one around. Early winter weather darkened quickly. After work, when workers had all left, it was good crime time. Liu Jun brought out an impact drill and viciously smashed large stones used for decoration in the company’s green belt to powder, drilling until stone chips flew and hit his face, drilling until his arms ached and he could barely hold the impact drill, yet still gritting his teeth and continuing destruction to the end until the stones were reduced to powder. Though exhausted like mud and problems remained unsolved, his heart felt somewhat better.
The first Friday of November, just after work, Liang Sishen hurriedly called to invite Liu Jun and Cui Bingbing to her home to discuss something. Liu Jun thought her house was spacious anyway, so he simply brought both children along to play with the Song family’s two sons. Cui Bingbing asked Liang Sishen what was up. Liu Jun didn’t know either, suspecting it was the previously mentioned news sharing when they had information, just right that everyone was free on weekends.
Unexpectedly, Song Yunhui was also there. The two families sat down to eat together first. Keke liked little sister Dandan, pinching Dandan’s face, then turning to pinch his own brother’s face, announcing a major discovery that little girls’ faces were softer. Xiao Suihua protected Dandan, not letting Keke pinch anymore, using a fork to violently block Keke’s hand. The adults let this group of children eat by themselves. When Dandan saw the nanny serve delicious garlic prawns, she forcefully grabbed Keke’s portion and gave it to Xiao Suihua, completely unintimidated. The adults all laughed, watching.
Liang Sishen didn’t beat around the bush, getting straight to the point. “Yang Xun found me. He wants to sell his XX Real Estate Company to me. This company has barely developed any real estate, so the finances are relatively simple. It has one piece of reserve land – residential land in a second-tier urban area with a planned construction area of 100,000 square meters. This company has nothing else of value – it’s selling this land. Yang Xun urgently needs money now and is willing to give me a discounted price, as long as I pay in full. I just finished talking with him. I plan to buy it. I’m optimistic about land price appreciation – we’ll analyze the reasons after dinner. I have all the relevant reports here. You’re all experts – let’s examine and analyze after dinner. Because this sum isn’t small, I invite you to join. I remember little Liu mentioning investing 30 million to buy houses. I think buying land is more direct and efficient.”
Liu Jun didn’t understand the business, but Cui Bingbing had broad contacts. Upon hearing, she knew which piece of land it was and knew this acquisition involved no less than one billion yuan. If Liang Sishen could come up with one billion yet was short three million, with her connections, she wouldn’t be unable to raise it temporarily. Therefore, Liang Sishen’s invitation to join had an obvious intent. Cui Bingbing said without hesitation, “Thank you very much, Sister Liang, for the promotion. This is a project worth over one billion.” Cui Bingbing gave Liu Jun a timely hint.
“You’re welcome – we’ll be partners from now on. Little Cui is an insider. You’ll need to participate more in the following procedures. Anyway, go home and calculate how much you have and participate accordingly. I’ll cover the rest from my grandfather’s fund. I can guarantee you won’t lose out.”
Liu Jun now fully understands. Liang Sishen remembered their conversation. He said excitedly, “Sister Liang, thank you for helping me save the center. I don’t know how to express thanks – you’ve almost saved my life.”
Song Yunhui laughed, “Thank you? The R&D center is Sishen’s rice bowl. She’s just saving her rice bowl.”
Liang Sishen said seriously, “We’re all complete profiteers, but occasionally we need to whitewash ourselves with metaphysical things like beliefs and ideals to appear as noble people, pure people, moral people, people who have escaped vulgar interests, people beneficial to the people. Hahaha.”
The other three adults present had all studied Chairman Mao’s quotations, the old three articles including “In Memory of Norman Bethune.” Hearing the very foreign Liang Sishen apply quotations flexibly was extremely amusing, and everyone laughed heartily. The four children instead didn’t understand, looking at the laughing parents very puzzled.
After dinner, Liang Sishen explained that she had roughly understood policy trends from friends and relatives and estimated that the highest-level policies would emerge soon. Real estate would be the focus, and local governments would obtain imperial swords. This was the policy aspect. On the other hand was the capital aspect. Currently, the whole world is using decisive interest rate cuts to expand circulation. China had one major difference from other countries – other countries’ banks were mostly private and would be cautious about risks and careful in lending. But China’s banks belonged to the state. As long as the state provided window guidance, they could only cooperate with an actively loose monetary policy and expand lending. Moreover, state investment would probably emerge soon in significant amounts. So it was foreseeable that future markets wouldn’t lack funds. Expanded lending plus state investment could fill the capital gap caused by cautious private investment. But under current conditions, where all industries were declining, where could this money be invested profitably? With export markets’ external demand affected by foreign financial crises unable to recover, and domestic demand having been stimulated for years without prosperity and even less hope now, the flow direction of huge funds was almost self-evident. Liang Sishen said this was very old-fashioned – Greenspan’s previous routine for saving the American economy, with precedent results. With policy support and capital support, what everyone should do is run ahead of policy announcements, quickly grab what should be grabbed, and be vultures once.
The four people made immediate decisions. They wouldn’t rest tomorrow Saturday – immediate action to seize the fat meat Yang Xun was forced to spit out.