The texts were weighty, the tables and desks ancient and simple, and birdsong sounded amid the shade of trees. The Hall of Careful Thought, the study of the Qin residence, had no ornately carved eaves nor gilded, extravagant trinkets within, yet great care had clearly gone into its design — the shade of the trees formed a canopy overhead, and the light filtering through was gentle and easy on the eyes; even in the height of summer, whenever a breeze passed through, the temperature in the room felt pleasant and refreshing.

Past midday, a handful of close friends had gathered here, enjoying the cool breeze, iced drinks, and pastries, chatting about this and that, discussing matters of the world as they sat. Though it lacked the extravagance enjoyed elsewhere, what came through here was very much the praiseworthy air of gentlemen.

And yet, what was being discussed here now was a matter weighty enough to sway the fate of the entire realm.

Though the matter of the Black Banner had not yet been settled, and Qin Hui still preferred to keep to the shadows before the whole strategy was put into motion, an affair of this magnitude could not be managed by one man alone. Having come straight from the palace, Qin Hui had invited several ministers he was on close terms with to his residence to discuss the matter — though “close terms,” in truth, meant little groups bound together by tangled mutual interests. In ordinary times he had shared and discussed certain thoughts with these men before; those closest to him, like Zhang Tao and Wu Biaochen, were trusted confidants, while those somewhat more distant, men of principle like Liu Yizhi, held views that differed somewhat from his own — gentlemen in harmony though not identical in thought — but none of them would ever go about spreading loose talk outside.

Ever since this whole mess had been dumped onto the Wu Dynasty’s doorstep by Liu Yu, the argument that the Black Banner was a grave and lurking threat that must be eliminated soon had ceased to be some fringe opinion out in the world — only it had never quite become mainstream either. It was only once the normally steady Qin Hui suddenly voiced his support, even quietly letting slip that he had already submitted this very strategy for approval, that the others understood he had already settled on his course. For a moment, some raised questions, and Qin Hui addressed them one by one.

“…Ever since the fourteenth year of Jinghan, the Jurchen have grown ever more powerful, and the times ever more dire; we have had no leisure to attend to other matters, which has let the Black Banner grow unchecked. The great crime of regicide has gone unpunished for ten years, and worse, not a few have privately colluded with them behind closed doors — for those of us who serve as ministers, this is truly a shameful disgrace… Of course, if these were the only reasons, given the present danger of war, I would not bother raising them now. But ever since the court fled south, our Wu Dynasty has harbored two great internal ills, and if we cannot resolve them, we may sooner or later meet with a calamity harder to speak of than any external enemy…”

As Qin Hui spoke, he moved among the gathered men, refilling the sugar water in Liu Yizhi’s and the others’ bowls; on such occasions the servants had all been sent away, but Qin Hui, ever courteous toward men of talent, went about these small tasks quite naturally, without pausing in his speech.

“The first of these internal ills is the friction between northerners and southerners — all of you gentlemen have, to one degree or another, been troubled by this in recent years, so I need not dwell on it further. The second internal ill is the phenomenon of military men usurping authority, which began when the Jurchen came south, and which by now has grown quite out of hand — this too, gentlemen, you are all well aware of.”

At these words from Qin Hui, most of those present nodded along. “With the Crown Prince supporting them from behind, even the common folk in the marketplace applaud it, it seems…”

“In Fujian and Zhejiang, military law already outweighs the law of the land.”

“When Hou Tingzhi went to take up his post with the Wuwei Army last year, he very nearly got beaten and sent back…”

“The Wuwei Army’s practice of drawing pay for phantom soldiers, of preying on the local people — it’s only gotten worse and worse.”

“And it’s not only the Wuwei Army by any means!”

Amid this chorus, Qin Hui raised a hand. “After the Jurchen came south, it made a certain sense for the military to grow in power. Our dynasty was founded on civil governance, and out of fear of military men usurping authority, we established the policy of having civil officials oversee the army. But over time, the civil officials sent out didn’t understand military strategy, and made a mess of things through and through! This led to countless abuses within the army, no fighting strength to speak of, and in the end, facing an enemy as formidable as the Jurchen, one single battle brought total collapse. After the court moved south, it was only natural that this system should be reformed — yet in all things, moderation is the guiding principle, and these past years, the correction has swung too far the other way — and what good has come of that!”

“Over these past years, war has been the great trend across the realm. When we first fled, our Wu Dynasty’s provincial armies, seventeen corps strong, were cut down to thirteen, while five new armies like the Beiwei and Zhenhai were added; having lost the Central Plains, our forces expanded to two hundred and seventy myriad men, and these armies, riding this tide, gained ever more power and influence, running roughshod over the local populace everywhere, no longer submitting to civil oversight. And yet has the abuse of power, the drawing of phantom pay, the skimming of rations meant for the common soldier — has any of that lessened?” Qin Hui shook his head. “I think not.”

“Too many rules in the army, and it can’t fight. No rules at all, and it still can’t fight. And an army without rules likely has even worse abuses than one with too many! These past years, the closer an army has been stationed to the southwest, the more dealings it’s had with the Black Banner — buying iron cannons, buying firearms in private, from that Black Banner — regicidal rebels that they are!”

Qin Hui’s voice turned sharp, and after a moment he calmed his angry expression. “Even setting aside this great matter of principle, and speaking only of practical benefit — if this could truly revitalize our Wu Dynasty, then let the buying continue, one might say. But is it really only a matter of business? The people of Dali thought the same way. The Black Banner, with both carrot and stick, kept insisting it was only business — back when the Dali people could still put on a show of readiness to move against the Black Banner, but by now, they can’t even manage that posture anymore. Once the interests run deep enough, one simply can’t bring oneself to act. Gentlemen, we all know that a clash with the Black Banner is inevitable sooner or later — if this trade continues, will these generals still be willing to move against the Black Banner when the time comes? By then, to protect themselves, there’s no telling what they might be willing to do!”

Qin Hui paused. “Our Wu Dynasty’s armies, gentlemen — first, their loyalties are no longer unified. After ten years of growing power on their own, do they still heed the court’s commands? Do they still carry them out without the slightest compromise, as they once did? Bear in mind, there are plenty of highborn men nowadays quite willing to back them up, to let themselves be deceived by them. Second, apart from the handful of armies the Crown Prince has raised with hard cash out of his own coffers, the fighting strength of the rest is doubtful at best. We who eat the sovereign’s bread cannot fail to share in the nation’s burdens. And as it happens, the matter before us now can be folded into a single stroke that addresses all of this.”

He raised a single finger.

“Striking the Black Banner can bring their thinking into complete alignment, and at the same time draw a clean line between them and us, once and for all — no more dealings, no more delay! Otherwise, by the time we’ve finished fighting the Jurchen, our Wu Dynasty may well find itself half-eaten away by the Black Banner from within already. Second — troop training. The fighting strength of these armies may be in doubt, but there are plenty of men. Near the Black Banner’s territory, there are also the Yi tribes in the wild mountains who can be won over, and Dali as well, one campaign after another, tempering the troops, then marching them north once properly trained. Otherwise, if we drag them straight before the Jurchen as they are now, I fear we’ll only see a repeat of the disaster at Bianliang!”

When Qin Hui finished, the assembled company fell silent for a moment before Zhang Tao spoke. “With the Jurchen’s southern advance imminent, isn’t this business of waging one war to fund the next rather too hasty?”

“Zigong, forgive my bluntness — if it truly comes to war with the Jurchen, it will not be settled in three or five years.” Qin Hui sighed. “The Jurchen’s strength far exceeds ours; even the Beiwei and Zhenhai armies, capable as they are compared to the rest, would find real victory extremely difficult now. But I have spent these years visiting with many of our generals, and the situation here in Jiangnan differs from that in the Central Plains. The Jurchen won their empire on horseback, their cavalry their sharpest weapon, and the flat, open terrain of the Central Plains lets them come and go as they please. But south of the river, the waterways run every which way, and even should the Jurchen come, they’ll find themselves badly hemmed in. Back when Zongbi ran rampant through Jiangnan, in the end he still had to withdraw his troops, and along the way he was even trapped by Han Shizhong at Yellow Heaven Basin, nearly capsizing his own boats. So I believe our Wu Dynasty’s greatest advantage in this war lies in our accumulated foundation.”

He looked around at the assembled men. “Ever since the court fled south, though we lost the Central Plains, under His Majesty’s diligent rule, our economy and agriculture have grown several times over compared to when we still held the Central Plains. But look at the Black Banner and the Jurchen both — the Black Banner sits off in its corner of the southwest surrounded by desolate mountains and barbarian tribes, relying on everyone else’s carelessness and its own far-flung trade routes to keep itself safe. If we truly cut off its trade routes on every side, even if we struggle to win on the battlefield, how long could it really hold out? As for the Jurchen — these years, their older generation has been passing away one by one, and the young ones have already grown accustomed to ease and comfort. Wuqimai’s stroke, with the succession to the throne imminent, is exactly why Zongfu and Zongbi want to seize Jiangnan to counterbalance Zonghan… Even if the fighting goes badly for us, a strategy of simply dragging things out would be enough.”

“The path before us is an extremely difficult one.” Qin Hui sighed. “It’s easy enough to say, but fighting this way, from one end of the realm to the other, will likely leave everything in ruins. But beyond this, however much I’ve racked my brains, I can find no other way forward. Years ago, all of you submitted memorials decrying the abuses of military usurpation, and the debates grew heated indeed; I said little at the time, and I remember Zhengzhong (Wu Biaochen) once rebuked me to my face over last year’s affair, calling me too accommodating. The late Chancellor Qin Siyuan was an old friend of mine, and though his student turned out to be this great traitor Ning Liheng, staining his reputation after his death, in all honesty, many of the things the old man used to say were truly insightful. I have pondered his methods and approach for years now, and only at this moment, proposing that we strike the Black Banner and clean house militarily, do I feel we can truly see it bear fruit. Even the Crown Prince and the Princess Imperial may well give their approval — and if so, our Wu Dynasty can unite as one, and great things can be accomplished.”

Qin Hui had, admittedly, made bold moves at court before, though not often; at times the men of principle had clashed with the faction of the Crown Prince and Princess Imperial, or with men like Yue Fei, and Qin Hui had never taken a direct part in these conflicts — in fact, this had led many to gossip about him behind his back. What none of them had expected was that he had held back all this time only to finally lay out his calculations today; turning it over in their minds, they could not help but murmur in praise, marveling at how Qin Hui had endured such humiliation for the sake of the greater good, truly a pillar of the realm, its anchor in stormy seas. They spoke again of Qin Siyuan — in official circles, opinion of Qin Siyuan had in fact always been largely favorable — and could not help but praise Qin Hui now as the one who had truly inherited Qin Siyuan’s mantle, perhaps even surpassing him in his judgment of men…

Amid all this praise, the assembled men also could not help but feel the weight of an enormous responsibility pressing down upon them — this was a war, once begun, with no turning back. The air of a coming storm was already bearing down on everyone present.

…

With war looming, in this vast court every faction had its own designs, and countless men hurried about, driven by anxiety, by duty, by ambition. At the Princess Imperial’s residence, Zhou Pei, having finally come to realize that the southwestern regime was no longer a friend, began preparing a counterstroke — if nothing else, to make sure people were forewarned in time. The “Black Banner menace” narrative now circulating through society was, quite possibly, not without the hand of this exhausted, heartsick woman behind it — she had once admired that man from the southwest, and precisely because of that, she understood all the more, and feared all the more, just how terrible it would be for the two sides to become enemies. And the more this was so, the less she could afford to stay silent.

And yet, just as she was about to fully publicize the narrative that the Black Banner had caused the Bianliang massacre out of pure self-interest, an urgent report arrived from the north bringing word that the Black Banner’s intelligence chief had faced down Ali Gua directly and saved the people and officials of Bianliang. This propaganda effort was cut short as a result, and what those behind it felt in that moment was not something easily conveyed to outsiders.

Corresponding to Lin’an was Jiangning, the city where Prince Kang Zhou Yong had first risen to prominence, now another core center of the Wu Dynasty. This center revolved around the still-young Crown Prince, and with the backing of the Princess Imperial’s residence and the emperor, had gathered a group of young, vigorous forces, now working hard to make their own mark.

Since returning to Lin’an to see his father and sister, Jun Wu had hurried straight back to Jiangning. Over these past years, Jun Wu had put in great effort supporting the supplies and equipment of several armies, the most notable among them being Yue Fei’s Beiwei Army, now garrisoning Xiangyang, and Han Shizhong’s Zhenhai Army, now watching over the Huainan defense line. Zhou Yong, timid and weak-willed by nature, ultimately trusted his son above all others, and it was to him that he had entrusted command of the loyal troops guarding the frontmost line.

In a war where both sides had prepared in advance, from the first stirrings of intent to the mobilization of supplies ahead of the troops, to the assembling of the armies themselves, crossing a thousand miles to finally clash blade to blade — the interval in between could stretch anywhere from several months to half a year or even a year. Of course, the main reason for this cushion of time was the major event of Wuqimai’s stroke beforehand, along with the warnings raised afterward by those alert to the danger.

Though he now controlled an enormous share of the court’s resources, Jun Wu, still somewhat young in his thinking, had not yet mastered the art of coordinating the various factions, of uniting officials each harboring their own agendas. And so, in this initial stretch of time, rather than remain in the capital wrangling with officials he’d previously clashed with, he went straight back to Jiangning, gathered every capable man under his command, and threw himself into planning the overall defense strategy, racing against time to maximize the efficiency of everything at hand.

Ever since Liu Yu’s proclamation had gone out, and with the Black Banner fanning the flames, various parts of the Central Plains had been responding one after another, and the first point where all this intelligence converged was Jiangning, on the southern bank of the Yangtze. With Zhou Yong’s backing, Jun Wu had the authority to handle this incoming intelligence as it arrived, and so long as it didn’t diverge too greatly from the court’s position, Zhou Yong was naturally more than willing to back his son up.

As in Lin’an, so too in Jiangning — within the Crown Prince’s residence, even men like Yue Fei and Wenren Buer, who had once had dealings with Ning Liheng, spoke with concern about the Black Banner. In fact, the better one understood Ning Liheng’s character, the more clearly one grasped just how ruthless and cold-blooded he could be in his actions; upon learning of these developments, Yue Fei had written to Jun Wu at once, urging that “the Black Banner Army of the southwest must be regarded as a true and formidable enemy” and that “in the contest for the realm, there can be no mercy shown.” Because of this, Jun Wu had specially convened a meeting within the Crown Prince’s residence to make this point clear.

In the past, because of the old ties between the Crown Prince and Ning Yi, and because the southwest’s regicidal rebellion could hardly be spoken of in the same breath as the legitimate rule of the Wu Dynasty, whenever people discussed the affairs of the realm they had always emphasized that the true contenders for the board were only Jin, Qi, and Wu — with the puppet Qi regime often dismissed as barely worth mentioning. But this time, they explicitly acknowledged the Black Banner’s status as a “player” and a genuine “opponent.”

Once this point was made clear, the Black Banner’s intentions in seizing Liu Yu and calling the Central Plains back to allegiance could be seen far more clearly. Indeed, this truly was the last chance for both sides to profit — if the Black Banner hadn’t acted, the Central Plains would have fallen entirely under Jurchen rule, and the Wu Dynasty would have found any future opportunity harder and harder to come by.

After the Crown Prince’s residence had held countless rounds of discussion, Yue Fei too hurried over to join them, though his time was limited — after meeting with the various parties, he would still have to hurry back to hold Xiangyang and prepare for battle with all his strength. That afternoon, after the meeting, Jun Wu kept back Yue Fei, Wenren Buer, and Cheng Zhouhai, who represented Zhou Pei’s interests — the old core of the former Right Chancellor’s household, men Jun Wu in fact trusted most in his heart.

“These past few days, talking with everyone, I’ve had a rather far-fetched idea — not an easy one to voice, so I wanted to shut the door and have a few of you help me think it through.”

These past years, Jun Wu’s thinking had tended toward the radical, and in terms of power he had always been the group’s backer, though much of his thinking still hadn’t matured — certainly nowhere near the level of an old, cunning hand — and on most matters of strategy he still relied largely on the advisors around him for reference. But this time, his idea did not seem like something borrowed from someone else.

“Wuqimai’s had a stroke, Zongfu and Zongbi are marching south, and Zonghan is bound to follow — this war concerns the fate of the whole realm. The Black Banner’s move in seizing Liu Yu was brilliantly played; whatever fine words they use to describe it, in the end it caught us completely off guard, and they came out the biggest winners. When I came back to the capital this time, my sister was furious about it, and I’ve been thinking too — we can’t just keep passively letting the southwest push us around like this… The Huaxia Army hasn’t had it easy in the southwest all these years either. For money, they say, they’ll sell anything — they’ve even sent troops to guard estates and wipe out bandit strongholds for Dali, all for coin.”

Jun Wu sat behind his desk, lightly tapping the table. “Our Wu Dynasty and the southwest share a blood feud over regicide, an enmity that can never coexist under the same sky — naturally we can have no dealings with them. But these past few days, I’ve been thinking, the situation in the Central Plains is rather different now. After Liu Yu’s blood letter went south, plenty of secret offers of surrender have come in these past few days. So — is it possible that… hm, Li Anmao of Xuzhou, whose heart lies with our Wu Dynasty and who’s willing to defect back to us — we could let him not defect. The Jurchen march south, and Xuzhou, being a key strategic point, will bear the brunt of the first assault; even if he defects, there’s no telling how long he could hold out — it’s a piece we neither want to swallow nor can afford to spit out…”

He gave a faint smile. “We give him a sum of money, and have him hire the Huaxia Army to send troops there. Let’s see how the Huaxia Army handles that.”

“Our Wu Dynasty is a great and dignified power — we can’t just let them dump this mess on us however they please. Let’s throw it back at them.” As Jun Wu spoke, he considered the difficulties involved. “Of course, we’d need to think through a great many details here — our Wu Dynasty absolutely cannot show its hand in this affair at all; where would such a large sum of money come from; or, whether Xuzhou as a target might be too conspicuous, and the Huaxia Army might not dare take it on — should we pick somewhere else instead… But I think, surely the Jurchen must hate the Huaxia Army with a passion too — if the Huaxia Army stood in the way of their southern advance, they surely wouldn’t let it go… Hm, and we’d also need to consider whether Li Anmao and the others are really worth trusting with this. Of course, all of this is just idle speculation on my part for now, and there may well be plenty of problems with it…”

As Jun Wu rambled on, the eyes of the other men in the room had already begun to light up. Cheng Zhouhai was the first to speak. “This might actually work…”

“Huh?” Jun Wu looked up.

It was as though, after so long chasing after the shadow of a certain figure, the young man was finally handing in his own answer to the test…