In the tenth month of the first year of the Chongde reign, the five tribes of Jie barbarians in the northern frontier rose in rebellion, rallying the remnants of the steppe Tatar forces, with their blades pointing toward the capital region. The Commander-in-Chief at Jiayuguan Pass sent an eight-stage urgent memorial, and the Five-Army Chief Commandery dispatched two great armies to provide reinforcement. In the eleventh month of the same year, the fifth son of the Benevolent Emperor, King Jing of the Anhui enfeoffment, raised a revolt. He personally led his household troops and the rebel garrison soldiers — a combined force of one hundred thousand — northward to “restore righteous rule.”

“One hundred thousand?!” Li Shi turned pale with shock.

Minglan turned to her: “Eldest Aunt-in-law, please do not panic. That number certainly counts the cooks, the laborers, and every distant relation they could find — fifty thousand would be the real figure.” Even Cao Cao’s vaunted armies had water poured into their true counts.

Changwu rose from his seat and nodded: “Exactly. I made careful inquiries — in truth it is only around thirty thousand men.”

“…I recall that after Emperor Wuzong pacified the Nine Princes’ Rebellion, he issued a strict imperial edict: in our dynasty, a prince from the rank of First-Rank Prince downward may maintain no more than a fixed number of household troops; moreover, princes hold no territorial fiefdoms, no subjects, and no administrative authority. The regional military commissioners are required to inspect and report on the movements of princes at regular intervals to the capital. How has King Jing managed to raise thirty thousand soldiers in the space of what seems like no time at all?”

Minglan walked over to stand before Changwu, asking with a puzzled look.

Changwu gave a rueful smile and replied: “Sister does not know — although King Jing incurred the late Emperor’s displeasure and was sent early to his enfeoffment in a distant region, the late Emperor was after all a benevolent man, and King Jing’s birth mother, Honored Consort Jia, had died young. The late Emperor could not bear to see his son suffer in the provinces, so he turned a blind eye to many of King Jing’s transgressions out in his territory. Over these years in the military camps, I often heard that King Jing’s power and authority in western Anhui were unchallenged — not only did local officials dare not speak a word against him, many actively assisted and protected him.”

Minglan’s brows rose, and she asked again: “Then does Second Cousin-brother Changwu know anything of how King Jing conducted himself in his enfeoffment?” Changwu looked blank: “What…do you mean?” Minglan quickly broke the question into parts: “First, tell me how he trained his troops.”

Changwu thought for a moment and replied: “King Jing’s birth mother was originally the eldest legitimate daughter of the General of State Protection from the time of the late Emperor. After King Jing established his princely household at his enfeoffment, the General sent over a number of capable officials and military men. The household had several captain-guards who were quite competent. However, King Jing seemed to favor his concubines’ own relatives, and often brought the brothers of his consorts and concubines to the capital to request weapons, silver, and grain.”

Minglan asked next: “And how did he treat the common people of Anhui?”

Changwu shook his head: “King Jing had so many armed retainers and troops to sustain — the princedom stipend alone could never be enough, and even the late Emperor’s extra generous grants could not cover it. The rest had to be squeezed out of the common people. And also…many of the great families in the Anhui region sent their daughters into King Jing’s household as consorts and concubines, which naturally tied the local powerful clans to King Jing’s cause.”

Minglan gave a noncommittal curve of the lips and asked once more: “And how was King Jing toward his soldiers in ordinary times — generous or stingy?”

Changwu was starting to feel dizzy from the rapid-fire questions. He could only feel that this younger sister of his, though her tone was gentle, was hitting squarely on every vital point with each question she posed.

Sheng Lao, seated in the upper seat, frowned in displeasure and said sharply: “Minglan! What kind of way is this to speak? One question chasing the next — is this proper behavior for a young lady?”

Minglan did not talk back; she simply bowed her head and stood still.

Every member of the Sheng family present was staring with wide eyes. Li Shi and the Shi woman had their mouths hanging open; Changsong’s jaw had dropped; Sheng Wei was listening so intently he immediately waved his hand, saying: “Auntie, there is no need to scold the girl. She is asking well. We are all in a muddle over here — and with this exchange of questions and answers between her and Changwu, I am beginning to understand things a good deal more clearly. She is saying that King Jing relies on personal favorites, exploits his common people, and cannot even count on the loyalty of his soldiers — which means his rebellion may well not succeed? Minglan, you may speak freely.” This last was addressed to Sheng Lao.

Ran grew animated: “Yes, yes indeed!”

Sheng Lao glanced around the room — all were Sheng Wei’s own household — then gave Minglan a nod. Minglan still had many things she wished to know, and without standing on ceremony, stepped forward and asked Changwu again: “Second Cousin-brother, when you left the capital, what was the state of the Capital Guard Commandant’s Office and the Five-Precinct Military Commissioner’s Office? Were the troops up to full strength? Was the equipment properly maintained? Had any of the commanders been transferred?”

Changwu knew this best of all and answered immediately: “In the nearly one year since the Emperor ascended the throne, only two transfers have been made at the commandant level — but at the associate commandant, battalion commander, and sub-commander level, quite a few changes have been made. Many men of humble birth have been promoted. I myself am among them. After taking up our posts, we have received a series of reform directives — no falsifying of troop registers, no slackening of training, and the like.”

Sheng Wei’s expression relaxed slightly, and he glanced at Li Shi with a measure of reassurance.

Minglan pressed further: “And what about the northern frontier rebellion — how many troops has the capital dispatched?”

Changwu made a rough estimate: “By the time we had traveled as far as Shandong, I heard that the Five-Army Chief Commandery had drawn off approximately two-thirds of its forces.”

Minglan fell silent for a moment, then asked one final question: “And Henan, and western Jiangsu…how do things stand there?”

Changwu knew what Minglan meant, and let out a long sigh: “Over these past dozen or so years, King Jing made several trips to the capital each year. Once he set out on this venture…those garrison units and enfeoffed princes in those regions all have ties of friendship with him.”

Minglan could not help smiling: “Then why is Second Cousin-brother Changwu in such a hurry to return to the capital and render service?”

Changwu struck the case table beside him with his fist and groaned in regret: “What can I do?”

Civil officials advance by years of desk work and accumulated seniority — but for military officers, the finest path to promotion is through battle. The Shenshen Uprising was precisely the kind of event that had allowed low-ranking military officers like Changwu, without noble connections, to rise up.

Minglan watched the expression of anguish on Changwu’s face, silently completing in her own mind the words he could not bring himself to say: This King Jing has really behaved in the most wretched fashion. If you’re going to rebel, at least give some advance warning. Had he known earlier there would be this chance to win merit and distinction, he would never have come home. But now…

Li Shi had gone over to console Changwu with a gentle hand on his shoulder: “My son, there will always be chances to earn promotion through battle. Right now things outside are in complete chaos. Whatever you do, do not go out there — your wife is still with child. You cannot afford to come to any harm.”

Sheng Wei, though he too wished for his son’s advancement, could not help but feel protective of him: “What your mother says is right. A man’s life matters most. Besides…no one can know for certain…” Ran quickly cut in: “No one can know for certain which side will win!”

Sheng Wei slapped the table and bellowed: “Foolish girl, hold your tongue! What nonsense are you spouting? It was wrong of us to let you in here in the first place!”

Ran shrank her neck back and said nothing more.

Changwu, full of his grievances, said vaguely: “Father and Mother may not understand — we military officers live by the motto that wealth and glory must be sought in danger. What soldier fights to the death without taking risks? Suppressing a rebellion is dangerous, yes, but compared to the bitter cold of the northern frontier and western Gansu, this is already the most favorable situation.”

Sheng Wei found himself hesitating. It was true that in peaceful times, military promotions were mostly the province of those with noble and powerful connections. For a family like the Shengs, who had no strong roots in the military, this was indeed a rare opportunity. And military officers were different from civil ones — a civil official could still be useful at seventy or eighty, hunched and squinting; but a military officer’s career depended on his body, and if he had not made it to sub-commander level by sixty, then…

Since learning of King Jing’s rebellion a few days earlier, Changwu had been anxiously gathering news from Jinling and found the heartland in complete disorder. Impatient to return to the capital and serve, Changwu had left Sheng Wei and Li Shi in a state of terror. Changsong and the Shi woman had both urged him against it as well, and even Sheng Lao had been brought in to hold the line. Naturally, Ran, Minglan, and little Changdong had all taken the chance to slip into the gathering too.

The atmosphere at Sheng Wei’s home was warm and harmonious, and propriety was not as strict as in an official household. The children could speak their minds freely in front of their parents. Without Rulan there to drag things off course and without Molan delivering cool remarks — and without Wang Shi’s jealous suspicions — Minglan actually felt bolder speaking in front of Sheng Wei and his wife.

Li Shi was still trying to persuade Changwu not to go. Changwu, worn down by his mother’s pleading, said helplessly: “Mother, you don’t understand! The capital is prosperous and fine — but anyone who holds even a small post in the capital garrison is a man with powerful noble connections. I still only got my posting by relying on Uncle’s good offices. Then in the Shenshen Uprising I was lucky enough to earn a little credit, and that is how I was promoted to Battalion Commander. In a regional garrison, I could manage the rank of Assistant Commandant. Mother — do you know how long it would take to grind one’s way up through years of hardship at the border without that? Not ten or eight years at the very least!”

Li Shi was at a loss for words. She looked desperately at the family around her, then called loudly to Sheng Wei: “Husband, will you not say something!”

It was not that Sheng Wei did not want to speak — he simply did not know what to say. His gaze moved from face to face: Li Shi, Changsong, the Shi woman, Ran… their expressions ranged from confusion to distress. Sheng Wei’s eyes traveled to the upper seat where Sheng Lao sat, with Minglan and little Changdong beside her.

Sheng Wei folded his hands respectfully toward Sheng Lao: “Auntie has seen more of life than any of us — she has eaten more salt than we have eaten rice. Nephew begs Auntie for her guidance.” Sheng Lao glanced at Changwu, feeling uncertain herself, and waved a dismissive hand, saying slowly: “What would a woman like me know of military and state affairs? If only your brothers or Changbai were here, perhaps they could say something sensible.”

Sheng Wei could not help but steal a glance at Minglan. He then looked back at Changwu. Changwu understood his father’s meaning — what the father could not say, the son could invite others to say — and so he spoke: “Younger Sister Minglan, what do you think?”

Minglan had been standing quietly with her head bowed beside Sheng Lao. Hearing this, she answered humbly: “In a matter of this importance, it is for Elder Uncle and the older brothers to decide. With Grandmother and Elder Uncle and Elder Aunt in the room, what could a girl like me possibly know?”

Sheng Wei said warmly: “Niece, just say what you think. You girls studied alongside Changbai when you were young — Master Zhuang’s teaching was exceptional; share your thoughts.”

Sheng Wei had spent more than twenty years in commerce and was quite experienced in matters of official dealings and economic affairs, and could speak to the networks of factional alliances among officialdom and the connections between great families to some degree. But in matters of military affairs and national strategy, he truly had no foothold. If not for Minglan’s series of clear and pointed questions just now, he might not even have grasped the full gravity of the situation.

This was not entirely his fault. This era had no required history classes at every level of schooling, nor the overwhelming flood of online military and history articles that filled the modern world. In a society with restricted access to information, how could a merchant and a few women of the inner quarters be expected to know all this?

Seeing Sheng Lao give her a slight nod, Minglan stepped forward hesitantly and, after a moment of consideration, spoke: “I understand what Second Cousin-brother Changwu means — he fears missing this chance to serve the nation. But Second Cousin-brother, think on this: to reach the capital, one would certainly pass through Anhui, Jiangsu, Henan, Shandong, and Shanxi. All of these regions are surely in complete disorder by now, and those bandits and brigands will certainly not be sitting idle — they will be seizing the chance to enrich themselves. Second Cousin-brother has no troops of his own at present — at most he could take along some household guards and local militiamen, but that may not be enough.”

Li Shi nodded vigorously: “Minglan is right! My son, this is exactly what your mother fears!”

Changwu ventured: “What if I dressed in commoner’s clothes and traveled in a light party alongside ordinary people? I might not encounter any disaster.”

Minglan nodded: “That is possible.” Li Shi’s face shifted. Changwu was actually somewhat pleased — until Minglan’s next sentence hit: “But how does Second Cousin-brother know he would definitely make it there and be of use?”

Changwu did not understand.

Minglan moved a few steps closer to the large brass warming brazier in the center of the room, the better to warm herself, and smiled: “First, the northern frontier rose in rebellion; then King Jing raised his banner of revolt — one wonders whether King Jing was waiting for his opportunity, or simply improvising. In any case, the rebel army’s one aim right now is speed. So long as there are no significant obstacles through Anhui, Jiangsu, Henan, Shandong, and Shanxi, if they can take advantage of the capital being left with sparse defenses and seize the imperial palace in a single stroke, the matter will be more than half accomplished.”

The Emperor had long resented this arrogant fifth elder brother. He had already stripped King Jing of several privileges in succession: no operating coal mines, no minting of coins, and reductions to his annual stipend with cuts to his household forces. King Jing had harbored treasonous intentions for a long time.

To say it more darkly, more in the vein of conspiracy theory, more fantastically — it was not impossible that the northern frontier upheaval was itself a piece of bait the Emperor had cast out deliberately. But Minglan felt she had simply been reading too many absurd military history novels; there were very few emperors mad enough to use a military rebellion as a scheme.

Li Shi’s lips had gone white: “Then…could King Jing actually succeed?”

Minglan tilted her head, searching her memory: “When Master Zhuang once lectured us on history, he said that throughout all the ages, princes and warlords who rebelled always flew the banner of ‘purging the Emperor’s evil advisors.’ Yet this King Jing is quite something — he has pointed his cause directly at the Emperor himself. But the current Holy Emperor was duly designated Crown Prince by the late Emperor, and his accession was made with proper rites before Heaven, Earth, and the ancestral temples. On that one point alone, King Jing has no legitimate claim.”

A commoner’s uprising was the only kind that directly attacked the Emperor as a villain — like Zhang Jue’s famous slogan, “The Blue Sky is dead; the Yellow Sky shall rise.” If it was a subject in rebellion, even one as formidable as An Lushan, who brought an end to the flourishing Tang dynasty, he still could not openly blame Emperor Xuanzong — he could only say the Yang family was no good at all, and that those lychees were terribly expensive, and call on the suffering masses to go together and strike down the treacherous ministers. And thus the An-Shi Rebellion was born.

“And adding to all that what Second Cousin-brother just told us, it is clear enough that King Jing has no shortage of weaknesses,” Minglan added. “Moreover, the Emperor’s management of the capital’s military defenses has been very capable, and the walls of the capital are high and thick — it may well be impossible to take by force. As long as enough time can be bought, when relief armies arrive from the various regions, King Jing will have no play left to make.”

Changwu’s face lit up with excitement, and he said loudly in an urgent voice: “Sister is right — so I must hurry back all the more!”

Minglan lightly poured another bucket of cold water: “That is not certain either. In the Nine Princes’ Rebellion, that coalition’s forces, resources, and popular support outnumbered Emperor Wuzong’s several times over — and yet in the span of barely one year, Emperor Wuzong annihilated them entirely.”

Ran grew anxious: “Then what exactly are you saying? You keep going back and forth and saying nothing!”

Sheng Wei gave his daughter a stern look, then looked at Minglan with puzzlement of his own. Minglan could only smile ruefully, spreading her two small hands in resignation: “I do not know either! Who can say for certain about such things?” This was like rolling the dice — no one knew the outcome until the cup was lifted.

Changwu sat in dark-faced silence. Minglan stood properly before Sheng Wei and, choosing her words carefully, said: “What your niece means is that there are too many uncertainties around the capital — it is not certain whether one could even reach it, and it is not certain what the situation there would be once one arrived. But Second Cousin-brother Changwu cannot just sit idle either. What about this — go to Jinling. Offer your services at the Jinling Metropolitan Commandant’s Office.”

Changwu looked puzzled: “Has Sister made an error? King Jing’s army has marched north — there is no fighting in the south.”

Minglan shook her head: “There is no fighting, but there will be refugees, and there will be bandits, and possibly even rogue soldiers taking advantage of the disorder.”

Changwu took a sharp breath and fell into thought. Minglan said, word by word: “Master Zhuang once told us — wherever there is military upheaval, there will be refugees. Jinling is wealthy and prosperous, and it is close to the Anhui region. From what Second Cousin-brother just heard in his inquiries, its military preparedness is lax and its garrison ranks are underfilled. Whatever the outcome of events, defending the city and protecting the people is always a righteous cause.”

Li Shi’s face finally brightened, a flush of color returning to her cheeks: “Yes, yes — Jinling is only an hour’s carriage ride from here. The family can be together and look after one another!” Yuhang was south of Jinling, and thus even safer.

Sheng Wei also felt this was workable. He turned to Changwu and said: “You know enough people at the Jinling Metropolitan Commandant’s Office. Take your Zhongwei Guard badge and letter of authorization, and your father will write a letter to Chief Secretary Liu of the Regional Military Commander’s Office.” With Sheng Hong serving as a censor in the capital — a man whose entire specialty was lodging official complaints — the Jinling Regional Military Commander’s Office would surely not dare steal any credit rightfully belonging to Changwu.

With that, every member of the Sheng household breathed a collective sigh of relief. They all turned to persuade Changwu to go to Jinling. Changwu was talked into dizzy confusion, and looked at Minglan with uncertainty: “Will there truly be refugees?” A few days ago when he had gone there, Jinling had still looked perfectly peaceful.

Minglan counted on her fingers and said: “That…let us wait and see.”

Changwu stared at his younger cousin-sister. Minglan looked back at him with complete innocence — being a strategic advisor was indeed a fine profession. One was only responsible for offering ideas; whether those ideas were adopted was someone else’s decision. If things went well, one got a share of the credit; if they went poorly, that was the commander’s poor judgment for following advice without thinking. If a strategist tells you something and you just do it blindly, and he tells you to jump off a building, would you?

After everyone had dispersed, Sheng Lao pulled Minglan close and said quietly: “Just now — everything you said — did you come up with all of it yourself?”

Minglan nodded, then reviewed what she had said. It should not have exceeded what was socially and historically appropriate for the period. Anyone with a clear head — Sheng Hong, Changbai, or any official with vision — could have said the same.

Sheng Lao’s expression was complex. Her gaze traveled over Minglan twice, and then she asked softly: “Will Jinling truly have refugees? How certain are you?”

Minglan leaned close and whispered in her ear: “Not certain at all.”

The Elder was taken aback.

Minglan lay against the Elder’s shoulder and murmured slowly into her ear: “Actually, I agree with Eldest Aunt-in-law — one’s life matters more than one’s promotion. But Second Cousin-brother Changwu would never let it go, so I thought it best to give him something to do.”

The Elder was silent for a long while, then said with astonishment: “Then you were talking complete nonsense?”

“Not at all!” Minglan forcefully lowered her voice. “The first big portion was entirely true. It was only the last few sentences that had some water in them. Jinling is an imperial auxiliary capital after all — its walls are high and thick. Refugees could not easily get in.”

The Elder pursed her lips and gave a small harrumph, then looked up at the sky with a sigh and said with worry: “I do not know how your father and Changbai are faring. I only pray they are safe.”

Minglan thought for a moment, then said with a grave face: “Your granddaughter has just thought of something. Actually, right now the rebel army is closer to us than it is to Father and the others. If King Jing encounters obstacles on his march northward, his scattered soldiers may well turn back and strike at the comparatively weaker Jinling — either to loot supplies for the army’s needs, or to seize the city as a stronghold. So right now…let us worry about ourselves first. Once King Jing has won a few battles, then we can worry about Father and the others.”

Minglan paused, then generously added one more half sentence: “This part has no water in it.”

The Elder had just let out a long sigh — and had it immediately stuck back in her throat. She stared at Minglan for a long while, her chest surging with a tide of feeling. She suddenly felt certain that she was going to live for a very, very long time.