A lantern-lit black-canopied boat glided along the small river near the street below; looking down from the upper floor of the Bamboo Bookkeeper’s, one could see pedestrians passing along the street, a small cart selling noodles and fried dough moving through the crowd, and beneath a large tree nearby, a peddler shaking a kite at a passing child. The night over Bianliang was deepening amid the shimmer of starlight.
Ning Yi’s fingers tapped against the railing.
“When the chancellor’s household first considered candidates for Deputy Transport Commissioner of Hedong Circuit, there were several other factors under consideration. But to be honest, the situation with rising grain prices in Hedong Circuit is severe — unlike anything we’ve dealt with before. To handle the relief effort properly, a great many people will need to be offended. Liu Congming, the Chief Transport Commissioner of Hedong, is indeed an old acquaintance of Chancellor Qin’s, and for this relief effort, having him cooperate, he will certainly try his best — but that ‘best effort’ has its limits.”
He paused briefly. “Having spent so many years navigating official circles, it’s not that there are no honest, upright officials — but those entirely untouched by any bad habits are truly few and far between. Lord Liu falls into neither camp, exactly. He’s not a bad official, mind you — if this were just an ordinary crisis, given the foundation he’s built over his years managing Hedong, he’d have the resolve to clean up the administration, even execute a dozen or so disobedient subordinates if needed. But this time, his heart is willing, yet his strength falls short. Because so many people would need to be offended — these were Elder Yao’s own words about him.”
“So in the end, the chancellor’s household had no choice but to settle for the next best option — someone with an upright character, ideally someone who wouldn’t fear making enemies, to work under Lord Liu, focused solely on the single most critical thread. And Lord Liu, for his part, would be willing to hand over authority for that one matter. When Chancellor Qin selected you, I admit I was somewhat surprised at first. But his reasoning was simple enough — regardless of anything else, Dexin, you are genuinely capable. Once this affair concludes, even if you’ve offended people, even if you face blame and criticism, it may still spare you several years, perhaps even a decade or more, of struggle down the road… Of course, if you approach this only with a mindset of preserving your own position, you likely won’t handle the task well. But you’re a clever man — you understand exactly what I’m saying.”
“Liheng underestimates me.” Hearing this, Li Pin laughed and shook his head. “In a situation like this, being promoted several ranks at once naturally means there’s real work to be done. If I were to play both sides now, seeking only to curry favor on all fronts and climb the ladder safely, that would truly be the path to my own destruction. But Liheng, setting all of that aside — we scholars believe that where the true Way lies, even against ten thousand men, we must go forward. Just as His Majesty said today within the palace — this relief effort isn’t about being an official, it’s about the common people. Whether it means offending people or even taking lives, if I, Li Dexin, harbor even the slightest thought of my own interest on this journey north, then I deserve to die ten times over.”
His tone wasn’t raised, but his expression carried a certain fervor, an unmistakable sense of righteous conviction. This was not the first time Ning Yi had witnessed such bearing in a Confucian scholar, and he understood the sentiment well enough. He nodded, and after a moment, sighed. “Many people will die this time. What the chancellor’s household hopes for is simply that fewer of them do…”
Li Pin frowned. “Then what did you mean by ‘trade routes,’ Liheng?”
Ning Yi said, “Dexin, what do you think is truly the most important thing in this relief effort?”
Li Pin thought it over. “Relief work, as a whole, is complicated to describe, but in truth, what we can actually accomplish comes down to a few key points: if we can enforce discipline strictly enough that corrupt officials and petty clerks below dare not skim off the relief grain, and the grain actually reaches the disaster victims’ hands, then the task is already more than half done. After that, strictly controlling market prices, forbidding merchants from selling grain at inflated rates, investigating, arresting, and executing those who deliberately drive up grain prices — and the relief effort should show real improvement. Of course, doing all this will naturally offend no small number of people.”
Once he finished, Ning Yi shook his head. “Most relief efforts are, indeed, handled this way in theory — but this situation is far more complicated. In the marketplace, what you’re calling spontaneous hoarding by the common people is, in fact, being driven from behind by people with deep backing. When you go to Hedong Circuit, involved there is the Zuo family of Zuo Duanyou, and the larger share belongs to the Qi family of Qi Yan. They likely won’t show themselves directly — they’ll simply serve as a protective umbrella from behind the scenes — which will make it extremely difficult for you to investigate, arrest, or execute anyone.”
“…And on top of that,” Ning Yi continued, “the number of people affected by this disaster who need relief now exceeds 1.7 million. The actual grain currently available on the books, nationwide, that can be allocated to the disaster areas, adds up to no more than 380,000 shi in total. As for the population figures, there are likely still many uncounted, and as for the grain — well, a good deal of it may well turn out to be bad debt, dead accounts. By our calculations, what can genuinely be produced amounts to roughly half of that — around 190,000 shi. And the gap between the two numbers only continues to widen from there — at this point, we’re talking about one shi of grain sustaining ten people’s lives.”
At this point, Ning Yi was practically counting on his fingers. Li Pin’s brow furrowed — at this time, a shi of grain weighed roughly a hundred and some jin in later measurements, around sixty kilograms. He heard Ning Yi continue. “This matter hasn’t been brought to light publicly yet, but it’s already under investigation — a number of officials, large and small, are going to fall because of it…”
Li Pin said, “190,000 shi of relief grain… in theory, the disaster areas themselves should still have a fair amount of stored grain among the populace. If it’s boiled into thin gruel, just enough to keep people alive, it seems…”
Ning Yi smiled. “You’re not wrong, Dexin. We’ve calculated this repeatedly, and to be honest, that figure of 1.7 million affected represents those significantly impacted by the rising rice prices — it doesn’t count those only lightly affected. Among this group, those who genuinely lost everything to the flooding are only a small fraction — meaning a portion of these people can still eat from their own stores, sell their houses and land, even sell their children if it comes to that, and still find some way to survive. But relief efforts, by their very nature, are meant to save the very bottom tier — those who genuinely cannot survive without help.”
Li Pin fell silent for a moment, then said, “…And we still need to subtract losses along the transport routes, skimming by officials, and covert interference from powerful families.”
“Cut it in half here,” Ning Yi said. “100,000 shi. Not even accounting for uneven distribution, Dexin — even if every official across all the circuits became a ruthlessly efficient enforcer, the actual amount of grain that reaches disaster victims’ stomachs to keep them alive would be roughly 100,000 shi. And that grain can’t even be distributed directly — it has to be boiled into gruel first, because direct distribution would only let powerful families skim off even more. On top of that, there’s foraging for wild greens, digging up roots, and so on. In short, after accounting for every factor, the Right Chancellor’s household calculated that, nationwide, the number of people who will starve to death because of this grain price surge will exceed 100,000. Beyond those who starve, in various regions, between 400,000 and 500,000 people will have their family property and land swallowed up by powerful households, reduced afterward to servants, tenant farmers, or beggars. If we can hold the numbers within this range, we’ll consider the relief effort effectively managed.”
The figures, spoken aloud, sounded cold and clinical, yet carried a heavy, weighted air.
After a moment of silence, Ning Yi smiled — a smile carrying a certain cold irony. “Don’t think this is some enormous number either. Even in Jiangning, come winter, an average of twenty people freeze to death every single day. During a month of snowfall, six hundred beggars, poor folk, and elderly die of exposure — and that’s already considered a time of peace and prosperity, and doesn’t even include ordinary deaths. Jiangning is a great city; other prefectures see somewhat fewer. Across the entire Wu dynasty, a single winter claims roughly 100,000 lives to the cold. This great disaster, with an estimate of 100,000 starved to death, is actually an optimistic projection. If things go badly, 300,000 or even 500,000 is entirely possible.”
Li Pin thought for a long while before finally speaking, his voice dry and rough. “What does the chancellor’s household intend to do?”
“Administrative measures and commerce must proceed hand in hand — but commerce must be the primary approach,” Ning Yi said without much hesitation. “Those who genuinely starve to death are the ones who already have nothing left at all. Relief grain, boiled into gruel and distributed, is meant to save exactly their lives. Those who still have some family property left can buy their own grain — even if it means selling land, their lives can still be preserved.”
He continued, shaking his head. “Honestly, these regions don’t lack as much grain as people imagine. There is some total crop failure, yes, but far more of the problem stems from everyone hoarding at once, driving prices artificially high. Grain that once sold for two and a half guan per shi in Hedong Circuit now sells for thirty guan — a tenfold increase — and yet very little grain is actually circulating in the market, because everyone’s still waiting for prices to climb even higher. Once the snow falls, there’s no telling how high that life-saving grain could ultimately climb. And when that happens, some people will starve, and others will rise up in rebellion.”
“Does the chancellor’s household intend to inject grain directly into the market?” Li Pin asked — though even as he spoke, he already knew it wasn’t feasible.
Ning Yi shook his head. “Only a hundred-some-thousand shi of grain — dumping that in wouldn’t even raise a ripple. At the old price of a bit over two guan per shi, my own household alone could have bought the whole lot. Even at ten times that price now, with the wealth these great families command, wealth that rivals entire nations, they could swallow it whole in a single gulp and turn around to sell it for even more. So what I’m considering instead is relying on merchants from other regions to flood the markets of the affected circuits — with this operation coordinated by the government itself.”
Li Pin frowned in thought. Ning Yi continued. “With the chancellor’s household leading, and coordinating with the forces of Princess Chengguo’s household in the south, we’ll persuade landowners and merchants of every size — anyone with stored grain at home — by explaining clearly to them the grain prices in the disaster regions, and then helping them plan exactly how to gather, transport, and resell it. If they tried to sell their grain locally, they’d never fetch this kind of price — but if they leave their home turf to build their own trade networks, they’d inevitably be taken advantage of by local powers. With our guidance, many smaller landowners will be willing to lend a hand, turn a profit for themselves in the process — and at the same time, we can tell them this serves the nation and the people, an act of tremendous merit.”
Li Pin’s eyes brightened slightly. “I heard the Bamboo Bookkeeper’s people had gone out brokering business deals — could this have been the preparation for exactly this?” He thought for a moment. “In that case, my own family has some acres of land and stored grain — I could write a letter home…”
“That’s not the main purpose, but it’s certainly a welcome benefit,” Ning Yi said. “The Bamboo Bookkeeper’s influence, for now, only extends around the capital area — a small player, in truth. And frankly, if we’re relying purely on persuasion rather than personal connections, most of the ones who can be swayed will be smaller, mid-sized local landowners. Those with truly great wealth and influence already have their own networks — for them, we’ll need Chancellor Qin, Elder Yao, Great Master Juemin, and the others to step in personally. Add to that Kang Xian and Princess Chengguo in the south — if we can consistently mobilize over 500,000 shi of grain into this effort, it should be enough to disperse the entire hoarding market.”
“And once the artificially inflated grain price is pushed down, interference in the distribution of relief grain will diminish further as well. From there, we’ll continue with investigations, arrests, executions, cleaning up the administration, and applying pressure on the market. Our final goal is to push the grain price back down below ten taels per shi, and to keep the death toll from starvation down to fifty thousand, or even fewer. This… is the significance of what I’m hoping you can accomplish — maintaining the trade routes of Hedong Circuit.”
Ning Yi smiled faintly, without much irony this time. “For this matter, you’ll need to set out within the next three to five days. Within ten days, once Chancellor Qin and Grand Preceptor Cai have finished their consultations, the whole plan will be set in motion. We’ll be reaching out to the gangs involved in transport, the fastest routes to every region, the plans for dumping grain onto the market. Within a month, the first batch of grain will arrive, and before the snow falls, we’ll push the grain price down. If we can just hold through that critical stretch after the first snowfall, a great many people will survive it…”